A new analysis from Wise Advice links Bitcoin’s price movement to the U.S. M2 money supply. According to the report, if current trends continue, Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by July 2025 — a move that could potentially trigger a surge in altcoins as well.
Bitcoin’s Price Reflects Growth in M2
An analysis published by crypto expert Wise Advice highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the M2 money supply in the United States.
M2 includes physical cash in circulation, checking deposits, savings accounts, and money market funds. When M2 increases, it signals greater liquidity in the economy — liquidity that often flows into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
How Does This Relationship Work?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has followed movements in M2 with a lag of around 10–12 weeks. The latest increase in M2 was 2.7%, rising from $107.5 trillion to $110.72 trillion. According to the analysis, this could spark another upward move in Bitcoin’s price.
Historical Patterns
Wise Advice identifies a clear pattern since 2023:
- October 2024: M2 peaks, and roughly 90 days later (January 20, 2025), Bitcoin reaches a high of $109K.
- April 2025: Following a decline in M2 in January, Bitcoin drops to $74K on April 7, 2025.
These examples indicate that M2 acts as a leading indicator for Bitcoin’s price.
Forecast: $135K by July 2025
Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,000, having gained 16% in the past 30 days and 3.3% in the past week. The analysis forecasts that if the M2 correlation holds, Bitcoin could rise at least another 24%, reaching $135K by July 2025.
What Does This Mean for Altcoins?
Historically, Bitcoin rallies are often followed by increased interest and capital inflow into altcoins. If the forecast proves accurate, it could trigger a new “altseason” — a period during which altcoins experience larger percentage gains than Bitcoin itself.
Conclusion:
If the correlation between M2 and Bitcoin remains intact, July 2025 could mark a new all-time high. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators like M2 to better anticipate future movements in the crypto market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Find answers to the most common questions below.
M2 includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds. Increases in M2 indicate higher liquidity, which often flows into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin tends to follow M2 increases with a delay. Given the recent rise in M2, analysts expect Bitcoin to peak around July 2025.
Bitcoin growth typically triggers renewed interest in altcoins. If BTC hits $135K, altcoins could enter a bullish “altseason” with higher percentage gains.
This article is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, legal or investment advice. Crypto-assets are highly volatile, so only invest funds that you are willing to lose and use your own research and risk management.
