Historically, the third quarter has been Bitcoin’s weakest, but new all-time highs and ETF inflows spark hope for more aggressive growth.
New All-Time High and Q3 Expectations
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22, sparking excitement among crypto investors. But whether this upward momentum will continue into Q3 remains uncertain, warn analysts from Bitfinex.
The coming weeks will determine whether Bitcoin’s latest breakout is a local high or the beginning of a more aggressive rally in Q3.
reads a Bitfinex note dated May 28.
Consolidation as a Healthy Necessity
Although Bitcoin’s price surged to new highs, analysts point out that this alone does not guarantee a sustainable upward trend.
- Consolidation or a mild pullback could strengthen the foundation for the next growth phase
- A similar pattern was observed after the March 2024 peak at $73,679
Seasonality Not in Bitcoin’s Favor
According to CoinGlass data, the third quarter has traditionally been the weakest for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the average Q3 return has been just 6.03%. In contrast, Q2 has delivered an average return of 27.25%.
Sell-Offs by Short-Term Holders
Bitfinex notes that the market has entered a phase of limited movement, with increased selling pressure from short-term holders (assets held for less than 155 days).
With realized profits of over $11.4 billion from short-term holders, there’s an expectation of a short-term supply surplus — but also structured demand.
the report states.
- Realized price for short-term holders: $95,781
- Current Bitcoin price (at time of publication): $108,929
- Average profit: 13.72%
Fundamental Signals of Market Maturity
Bitfinex highlights three key indicators pointing toward sustainable growth:
- Strong interest in Bitcoin ETFs
- Low volatility
- Spot market premium
In the week ending May 23 alone, ETF inflows reached approximately $2.75 billion.
Focus on the Federal Reserve
Investors are closely watching the next interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, scheduled for June 18. In May, the central bank maintained rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range.
Earlier Predictions Are Coming True
Some market analysts predicted this rally back in March. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten gave a 50% chance for Bitcoin to reach new highs before June. Similarly, Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts also forecasted new ATHs by the end of Q2.
Conclusion:
While there are reasons for optimism, history advises caution when predicting Bitcoin’s Q3 performance. Signals of market maturity, combined with ETF inflow dynamics and macroeconomic conditions, will be key in determining the next phase of movement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Find answers to the most common questions below.
Historically, Q3 shows the lowest average returns due to decreased trading volume and post-halving market cooling. Since 2013, it averages only a 6% gain compared to Q2’s 27%.
Strong ETF inflows, increasing institutional demand, and low volatility could override historical patterns and lead to continued price growth in Q3.
Analysts warn that consolidation is likely, but underlying fundamentals—such as ETF momentum and market maturity—support long-term bullish trends.
This article is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, legal or investment advice. Crypto-assets are highly volatile, so only invest funds that you are willing to lose and use your own research and risk management.
